Are successful leaders lucky?
The Warren Buffetts and Bill Gates of this world are often described as just lucky. But is that really the secret behind their success? Devote 5 minutes to watching Morten Hansen, management professor at UC Berkeley and Insead, describe the characteristics of leaders that make their organisations thrive in times of chaos and uncertainty:
Hansen studied high performing leaders and what he found goes against what we commonly believe about successful leadership.
Bold & visionary leaders a thing of the past?
That's the case according to Hansen. He brings up people like Bill Gates as prime examples of great leaders. Apparently Gates had no vision at all, in fact he was often wrong in his predictions.
Outstanding leaders instead create a future for their empirical trials. If the trials work out according to plan, they invest in the new idea. In other words, leadership is not about big bets but safe bets. Buffett is a prime example of such a leader which has led to an abundance of investors making fun of him and saying he had lost it.
We all have good & bad luck
Good and bad events happen to all people and in all organisations. They are out of your control and not expected. Good or bad luck is another way of describing it.
When comparing companies that are successful with companies that are not, Hansen's study found that they had more or less the same amount of good and bad luck happening to them. So he concluded that success had nothing to do with luck.
If not luck, then what?
What the study found was that the well performing leaders and companies had a higher return on the good luck they got because they seized the moment.
So how do you get higher return?
Successful leaders are prepared for bad luck, i.e. make sure that if worst comes to worst they know what to do.
They are prepared to seize the moment when good luck strikes. Bill Gates is a good example of that when he was still at Harvard but realised he couldn't finish his studies because he had to seize the moment when it came to personal computers.
And the third point is to execute brilliantly when you have good luck. That's how you get a higher return on luck.
Do you agree with Morten Hansen that luck has nothing to do with success? Are we great by choice? Should we, like Bill Gates, have nightmare memos to be prepared for the worst that can happen? Are you one hundred percent committed and focused on succeeding with what you are doing? Are you creative in an empirical way i.e. don't make one big investment into a new area but spend years trying out a new concept and only when it shows that it's a great idea do you take the risk of moving into that area. Do you seize the moment when good luck strikes? If so, according to Morten Hanson you are a great leader and not an average one.
Video: HarvardBusiness – You Tube
About Catarina AlexonNär Europa och USA brottas med ekonomiska problem kanske det är dags att fundera på nya marknader? Eller en omprioritering?
Har ett stort nätverk världen över och är skicklig på att utveckla och genomföra marknads och kommunikationsstrategier för olika typer av organisationer, målgrupper, länder och syften.
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Tags: Berkeley, Bill Gates, cease the moment, empirical creativity, Harvard, INSEAD, lucky leaders, Morten Hansen, nightmare memos, Warren Buffett
June 10th, 2012 at 13:23
For various reasons I am not a big fan of Bill Gates, so it's hard for me to desire to emulate him. From watching the video, it sounds like a lot of these characteristics may be genetic. We have to go with out strengths – most of us aren't going to be as driven as these leaders are.
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June 10th, 2012 at 14:06
Maybe you are more keen on Warren Buffett, Leora? Am no fan of either or anybody else for that matter.
Personally am not keen on Microsoft, but like what The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation is doing. Recently read Warren Buffett's biography and the way he operates is super smart. Actually it's just what Hansen described as the traits needed to succeed. Most of them are definitely genetic.
Found Hansen's conclusions very interesting. Not least since I have a huge dose of the traits from my father. Learnt from his mistake however, not to bee too bold when it comes to investment and that's why I investingate and try out ideas before going ahead. Having said that though, if the innovation doesn't involve any investment I am bold:-)
Have never thought of myself as driven because it's simply normal to me. But people keep telling me I am:-) But that doesn't prevent me from now and then being lazy:-) Honestly am of the opinon that, not only I but most human beings, are driven when we really believe in something. If not, our drive goes out the window.
June 11th, 2012 at 10:08
I think so. Every leaders is lucky. Whether it is good or bad reasons.
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June 11th, 2012 at 10:38
Mika, don't you think we all create our own luck? If not, we jcould just sit down and wait for luck to strike. Haven't you noticed that the more we do the more we achieve?
June 11th, 2012 at 17:13
As Gary Player most famously said, "The harder I work, the luckier I get." I firmly believe we (can) create our own luck – it's, as you say, Catarina, about being alive to the possibilities and seizing the moment when it comes – carpe occasionem…
I agree that great leaders provide the place to spot opportunities, seize them as they emerge and then ensure strong execution.
June 11th, 2012 at 20:05
YES
June 12th, 2012 at 00:12
If I have to be FANATICALLY disciplined to be successful (as suggested in the video) I am probably not going to make it.
I think I have pretty good discipline, which will take me to a certain level, but I'm not sure it's fanatical. Who knows, though, maybe as I continue to reach toward my goal my discipline will grow (I know it has already).
I'm also a little uncertain that I would enjoy being "productively paranoid." I'm thinking I agree with some of the other commenters, that maybe some of these things are genetic traits–and these successful people figured out how to leverage them to their advantage. I don't think I could live my life constantly thinking about worst case scenarios and then figuring out how I would fix them when they came. However, I think it IS a smart thing to do–just for me I would need to balance that out. Hmm . . . now I'm starting to wonder if I got what it takes to do what I want. . .
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June 12th, 2012 at 01:33
Two thoughts.
1) Malcolm Gladwell discusses Bill Gates success in "Outliers: The Story of Success." Timing is everything – being in the right place at the right time with the right people and resources. Maybe this is a definition of luck. Gladwell's vignette about Gates is very instructive.
2) One of my favorite sayings is "luck is preparedness meeting opportunity."
Were Buffet and Gates just lucky? Depends on your definition of luck.
June 12th, 2012 at 04:04
Hi Catarina,
While it could be called luck I think as per the Bill Gates example they saw a potential opportunity and worked on it. Many who are not successful see the hard work that may be required and wait until it lands in their lap which doesn't happen.
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June 12th, 2012 at 09:36
Hello Catarina, I think that too. But the leaders have their luck because they give a lot of effort to reach it.
June 12th, 2012 at 11:04
Kamal, it that's the case all we have to do is sit down and wait for luck:-)
June 12th, 2012 at 11:05
Glad we agree, Guy.
June 12th, 2012 at 11:08
Bethany, being fanatical about succeeding is the same thing as being passionate about it. And we all know that's the key to success. And being prepared for the worst is crucial. If not you are caught "with your pants down". Having said that it's not possible to be prepared for everything because sometimes something happens that you couldn't imagine in your wildest dreams.
June 12th, 2012 at 11:09
Excellent way of putting it Susan.
June 12th, 2012 at 11:23
Duke, if you are in the right place, the right people and resources at the same time and do nothing about it – nothing happens. So tha't missing out on getting lucky. Preparedness meeting opportunity is creating your own luck. So Gates created his own luck when he left Harvard to seize the opportunity.
If you read Buttett's biography you will find that he created his own luck. He mainly read up on shares 24/7 and made safe bets. This started out already when he was a teenager. Keep in mind that he was a nobody from Omaha, Nebraska so he didn't have a fortune that he could speculate on. He is selfmade.
June 12th, 2012 at 11:24
Yes, Mika they work really hard, fucus and create their own luck by seizing the moment and being prepared for the worst.
June 12th, 2012 at 14:37
Caterina – of course one must act when an opportunity presents itself. As the saying goes, "he who hesitates is lost." Gladwell makes a convincing argument that Gates was born at the right time and that his mother made a fortuitous decision making an early computing device available to Gates and his school. Gladwell also mentions the 10,000 hour rule. This is preparedness.
Now there is an element of luck in the story of Bill Gates and Microsoft. Allegedly, fledgling Microsoft was not IBM's first choice for the IBM PC. They wanted Gary Kildall's DRI and the industry leading CPM operating system. According to legend, Kildall had other priorities and did not have time to talk to the IBM representatives. The story is recounted in a October 24, 2004 Business Week article "The Man Who Could Have Been Bill Gates."
Gates was at the right place at the right time and was prepared for the opportunity, but if Kildall had acted when the opportunity was presented to him Microsoft may have languished and eventually disappeared as did many software startups of the 1970s and 80s. But the opportunity was presented to Gates and he acted.
June 12th, 2012 at 16:01
Cat-arina, It's preparedness & the sum total of their decisions, like craps. It helps to be born with a silver spoon in your mouth. If the dog didn't stop to poop he would have caught the rabbit. A dog like Billy did not stop and if he applied to work at his company he would not get hired. Are these "smart" people or are they just fulfilling their destiny. Someone check Billys' depends, by the amount he is injecting innocent souls with junk science vaccines, he may have an eternal price to pay. Please do not respond emotionally, study the facts first. Bless, G
June 12th, 2012 at 16:56
Like in backgammon, I believe there is a degree of luck. Or maybe serendipity. To the degree of agreement with the major points here though, they certainly are part of the formula. I can remember when I was afforded the opportunity to be a store manager with a computer retailer. I happened to be – in the right place at the right time. The luck. And as a top salesperson I didn't always have my eye on the money but instead, on something bigger. I just wasn't satisfied with #1 in sales
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June 12th, 2012 at 16:58
I read the book "Luck Factor" few years back. People who consider themselves lucky will be able to seize the luck according to the author.
Great leader are all driven by their ideas. The fire that motivates them to take action is so strong that it cannot be overlooked.
Many of the Self Help gurus have told about the burning desire and going after that desire to make it happen. The thing is how a person can keep that desire alive when downfalls/ obstacles come on the way.
Thanks for sharing the idea. Love the article. It stimulates my mind.
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June 12th, 2012 at 18:14
GiHopkins, You obviously have something against Bill Gates. Why don't you read up on Warren Buffett and you will find that he wasn't born with a silver spoon in his mouth. He's a complete nobody from Omaha, Nebraska.
By the way, this article is not about Gates and Buffett, they are just examples of successful leaders with the traits Hansen's study found essential.
June 12th, 2012 at 18:15
Glad you agree with the results of Hansen's study, Pat.
June 12th, 2012 at 18:17
Glad you like it Bindhurani. Good points you are making.
June 12th, 2012 at 21:20
I had a boss, a CEO, who once said let's try for the 70% solution. What he meant is that if we wait for the perfect solution we'll never take the next step. We'll never get it perfect, so get started and perfect it along the way. My father always told his children, and I follow his wisdom to this day: always try for that extra 10%. Always put that extra 10% of effort into something if you want to successful. Nothing beats hard work.
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June 13th, 2012 at 00:09
I don't completely agree with Hansen, but I can understand what he is saying. Chance is important, so is hard work. I believe that we can essentially change the effects of our "luck" by taking action – for example: Preparing our company for the worst things or taking small steps to improve our success.
As far as other factors go, they all play an important role. But, I believe that we can counter act all other factors by determination and hard work.
Anyways, appreciate the post, Catarina.
Jeevan
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June 13th, 2012 at 07:03
Too many people believe that the outcome of their success is due to some luck or fate intervention. This simply makes people passive on reaching for their success, and instead, these people are going to wait for "luck" that may never come. So better strategy is to take the initiative to put yourself out there in the world. To feel vulnerable, whether it be spilling your mind at the career fair, or traveling to a new place. Just putting yourself out there and taking risks will garner more success in the long run than simply believing that luck is all you have.
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June 13th, 2012 at 07:46
It is important to seize the moment. True leaders are those who are able to spot an opportunity, which seems like luck to many. There are yet others who do not see the opportunity. The distinction lies in the ability to see, what other's don't see. Insightful post as always.
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June 13th, 2012 at 09:43
True Jeannette, nothing beats hard work i.e. being prepared, trying out a new idea before you implement it and seizing the moment.
June 13th, 2012 at 09:44
Jeevan, from what you write it seems that you all in all agree with Hansen.
June 13th, 2012 at 09:45
Thank you Lubna. Good way of putting it.
June 13th, 2012 at 19:30
I think it takes great dedication on the work you have chosen. The people I have been friends with who developed multimillion companies and ideas did two things:
Failed several times before finding what they were good at… and
Devoted all hours to making it work when they found it.
Having talked to these people if you were to ask them if it was pure luck or indeed if they classed themselves as 'lucky' they would be mortified because it detracts all that they gave up and their hard work to be 'lucky'
June 13th, 2012 at 20:06
Exactly Claire. They are 100% committed to what they are doing and almost work 24/7. When I hear people saying "he was just lucky" it really annoys me and your friends have a right to feel mortified when someone considers themselves lucky. We all create our own luck and it's hard work:-)
June 13th, 2012 at 20:12
I do agree with his assessment. The example of Warren Buffet is very apt. It isn't luck but what you do with the cards you are dealt that matters the most. The fact that we all make mistakes means that we have to anticipate and be prepared for whatever comes. The ones who can do that and seize the opportunity that each presents are great leasers indeed.
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June 13th, 2012 at 20:41
I think that seizing the opportunity at the right time is essential but true leaders are those who can perceive the opportunity is there to be seized. Others , like Steve Jobs create the opportunity. Creating a niche market is so much more creative than just filling a void. Luck has a small part to play buy hard work counts for an awful lot.
Good thought provoking post Catarina.
June 14th, 2012 at 10:03
Glad you agree with me Susan. What you say is very much to the point.
June 14th, 2012 at 10:04
True AK. It's essential to both seize the moment and create your own luck.
June 14th, 2012 at 18:31
I don't think it is luck that people succeed, it usually takes seeing an opportunity and not being scared to do it. Most do not want to fail so don't try
June 14th, 2012 at 18:46
Glad you agree that it isn't "luck" that makes us succeed, Roy. If it was we could just sit down and wait for" luck" to come to us.:-). Do you agree with what professor Hansen outline as the traits needed to be really successful?
June 14th, 2012 at 22:04
It might work for some and not for others. I built my business over the years by determination that I could succeed and worked at it until it was a success. I then went on to build other businesses with the same determination not to fail. (I guess I am stubborn) I don't think a business should fail if you really look at what is needed and I have stated that to many business people but I sometimes get a negative response but the real success stories, know what I am talking about because they have been there and weren't doing it according to what a survey says, etc.
June 15th, 2012 at 10:52
OK Roy, so you succeeded without being prepared for the nightmare scenario, not seizing the opportunity when it comes and not trying out a new idea before going on with it. Well done!
June 17th, 2012 at 18:29
I don't believe luck has anything to do with being successful. I do believe that timing is critical but it comes down to being prepared. Smart business leaders like Warren Buffet and Bill Gates are constantly strategizing and planing for the "what-ifs".
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June 17th, 2012 at 20:55
True Sherryl, if we wait for luck to make us successful, we will definitely fail. Most of the traits outlined by Hansen I have. For instance always try to be prepared for the worst that I think could happen. Catch is it's impossible not only for me but for Buffett and Gates as well. For instance who would have imagined the impact of Lehman collapsing? Correction, Buffett actually did and tried to convince the Fed to save it because he understood the domino effect that would follow. But they didn't listen and neither did the Bush White house and administration. Pity Buffett wasn't in charge of the Fed since the world would have been a better place right now if he had been.
June 18th, 2012 at 15:00
Hi Catarina: I think that a blend of luck, determination, hard work, a clear vision and the ability to collaborate effectively are the recipe for success. No matter what our dream is, if we "can't play well with other" and forge effectively relationships, I don't believe we will succeed.
I therefore am a huge believer in networking.
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June 18th, 2012 at 16:18
Thank you for letting us know your definition of leadership Doreen. However it's such a huge subject this article merely looks at the characteristics of leaders that make their organisations thrive in times of chaos and uncertainty. Do you agree with the findings of professor Hansen's study when it comes to that aspect of leadership?
June 18th, 2012 at 20:29
I can't say that they resonated with me. I just watched the video now. (I'm one of those people who doesn't enjoy having to watch a video in order to respond to a post.)
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June 19th, 2012 at 04:06
If one is driven by passion then I think it can make a great difference that could bring a great change in one's own leadership skills.
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June 19th, 2012 at 10:11
OK.
June 19th, 2012 at 10:12
Glad we agree Harrison.
June 19th, 2012 at 10:12
True, Macman. Passion is what it's all about.
July 17th, 2012 at 10:52
First we heard of "Attitude determines your Altitude".
Then, "Aptitude plus Attitude equals Altitude".
My take would be:
AWARENESS + Aptitude + Attitude = Altitude
This "Awareness" encompasses not just
in terms of risks and opportunities but
business knowledge or at the very least,
the ability to acquire and translate it.
This is @TheGreatLight.