Cyber war more likely than nuclear conflict?
The prospect of war with Iran is headline news. But how prepared are we for cyber threats? Or worse, the prospect of cyber space turning into a nuke? Devote four minutes to listen to what a high level delegation from Europol, Israel, NATO, the EU and US has to say on cyber security:
According to a new report on cybersecurity by Security & Defence Agenda, a think tank in Brussels, Sweden, Finland and Israel are best prepared for cyber attacks. Better even than the United States, Germany and Britain, which is alarming since the latter three are more likely to be targeted than Sweden and Finland. India, Brazil and Mexico on the other hand, rank near the bottom.
More than half the respondents believe a cyber arms race is already going on and 36% are of the opinion that cybersecurity is more important than missile defence. Nearly half said that it's as important as border securiry.
Global agreement to share information recommended
Governments and private sector companies need to cooperate better on sharing information about possible threats. The public also needs to be educated and more attention being given to secure smart phones and cloud computing.
China lagging behind
Considering how active China is reputed to be in cyber warfare, it's surprising that the report finds that they are no better equipped to defend themselves than countries like Poland and Austria. Makes you wonder if the talk about China's super elite Cyber army is exaggerated? If not, why don't they make sure they are better protected against attacks? Provided, of course that the report has the right information.
Apparently the West is so far scrambling to bolster its capabilities as I wrote about in Cyber Warfare – hackers to the rescue? six months ago. Hackers are both a concern and possible assett when it comes to defense in cyber space. A few days ago Anonymous released a recording between the FBI and UK police discussing efforts against hackers. Once again, can't avoid thinking that it would be much better if the members of Anonymous and other such groups could give governments a helping hand. Let's face it they exist and could use their skills in beneficial ways.
US warns against Iran, China and Russia
On January 31st James Clapper, US intelligence officer told the senate that Iran is accelerating its activity in cyber space and warned that China and Russia have aggressive capabilities. Iran, Russia and China on the other hand accuse the United States of being the main agressor in cyber space.
What's your opinion? Do you agree that an arms race is already going on in cyber space? Are Iran, China and Russia as active as we are led to believe by US intelligence and the news? Did you know that 1,000 attacks a minute take place world-wide? Is a full scale online war more likely than a nuclear conflict? Is enough being done to protect us against attacks in cyber space? What more could be done? Will it actually go as far as an online war? If so, will it paralyze the world and who will be the winner?
Video: InfoSecDefAgenda
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Tags: Anonymous, Austria, Brazil, Britain, Brussels, China, China Cyber army, cyber space, cyber war, cybersecurity, FBI, Finland, Germany, India, Iran, Israel, James Clapper, Mexico, Poland, Russia, Security & Defence Agenda, Sweden, United States
February 6th, 2012 at 16:57
There's no question in my mind that there is already a low-level cyber-war going on. I suspect that few governments are not already involved, and also suspect that much of the activity is still being done by independents that may, later, approach governments to sell the results…
I agree that it is a more likely/real threat than nuclear war: no country could afford to launch a nuclear attack today, due to the level of global response to this emotive action. Cyber warfare is more like guerilla warfare – low profile, tightly targeted and more easily deniable…
Will it escalate into a full-scale war? Unlikely – I think it will continue to operate in the shadows, but that makes it no less dangerous.
February 6th, 2012 at 17:18
Glad you agree with me Guy. Excellent and spot on points you are making!
February 6th, 2012 at 19:37
Hi Catarina,
I also agree with you because cyber attacks are cheaper to organise, quicker to put into action etc versus nuclear. I don't doubt the countries are growing their capabilities and the ones we hear about are probably only the tip. I don't think there will be all out war, but it means there is another tool in the war for world supremacy. Another thought provoking article.
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February 6th, 2012 at 20:27
Catarina, I think cyber warfare presents a very real threat and that it does make the US vulnerable. Once again, our country should look to Israel and other countries to learn how to protect ourselves. Sometimes, it takes too long for our leaders to take action.
Your comment "Governments and private sector companies need to cooperate better on sharing information about possible threats." is so important. According to an article posted on Reuters last week, "At least a half-dozen major U.S. companies whose computers have been infiltrated by cyber criminals or international spies have not admitted to the incidents despite new guidance from securities regulators urging such disclosures." The statistics on this are frightening.
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February 6th, 2012 at 20:27
Catarina, I think cyber warfare presents a very real threat and that it does make the US vulnerable. Once again, our country should look to Israel and other countries to learn how to protect ourselves. Sometimes, it takes too long for our leaders to take action.
Your comment "Governments and private sector companies need to cooperate better on sharing information about possible threats." is so important. According to an article posted on Reuters last week, "At least a half-dozen major U.S. companies whose computers have been infiltrated by cyber criminals or international spies have not admitted to the incidents despite new guidance from securities regulators urging such disclosures." The statistics on this are frightening.
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February 6th, 2012 at 21:16
I remember watching a documentary where some Chinese companies hire a ton of workers, simply to hack and break into other company or gov't agency websites. I'm sure other countries are doing it, so yea, I definitely agree that the cyber warfare is good stay, as long as we have computers, Internet, and growing technology!
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February 7th, 2012 at 06:50
I also think a cyber warfare is likely. But it's anyone's guess as to how serious it would become.
It's becoming very hard to trust the government and other countries because no one would truly say what they're thinking or doing. That would be like playing poker with your cards facing up.
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February 7th, 2012 at 07:22
I think our best bet is to create a fair amount of security and let go of the need to be invincible. It is because of our need for control that we polarize a space. If our focus is not on the eradtication of attack, but the minimization we will end up creating less of the threat. The threat is out there we cam amplify or accept it. The more we just stay fearful of it we will perpetuate it. May as well take small steps to safeguard.
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February 7th, 2012 at 11:16
Thank you Susan. Glad we agree.
February 7th, 2012 at 11:18
Glad we agree Sherryl. It's frightening and hopefully protection will get better.
February 7th, 2012 at 11:37
Glad you agree with me Harrison.
February 7th, 2012 at 11:37
Yes Alan, let's see if it ever develops into full scale online. war Hopefully not.
February 7th, 2012 at 11:41
Rebecca, it's unfortunately not a quetion of fear but reality. Every minute 1,000 attacks take place on a world-wide scale. To take a small example I'm sure you, like me, know plenty of people who have had their emails, facebook & twitter accounts and online banking hacked. Some people I know have actually had their computers taken over. It's normal people just like you and me. Unfortunately surrent safe guards are frequently far from enough.
February 7th, 2012 at 17:38
Hi Catarina,
I read through your post a couple of times, and I must admit, I am not qualified to answer the questions you pose. I do have my doubts that there is enough ability anywhere to do world crippling damage. If there is that kind of ability, then systems should be made to be redundant. I remember the lesson of Christmas tree bulbs. If you had them hooked together in one type of circuit, then all the bulbs had to be good for any of them to work. The other type of circuit would let all the good bulbs work, even if there were some bad ones. Probably too simple of an analogy, but maybe not?
Lou
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February 8th, 2012 at 00:41
It is a definite possibility though there are a lot of factors that come into play to consider how realistically it would happen. Good food for thought.
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February 8th, 2012 at 11:30
Glad we agree Stacy.
February 8th, 2012 at 11:31
Thank you for conveying your opinion, Lou.
February 8th, 2012 at 16:49
Catarina I always find your blogs very thought provoking:) I must admit I just don't know, I doubt it will go to a full-scale war but in all honesty don't know enough or feel qualified enough to comment on this.
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February 8th, 2012 at 17:27
You will not be able to stop the impacts of the on-going Cyber War. It is the new Cold War. So far no one has gotten killed or a structure been destroyed. Will it one day? If it does, then it is no longer a cold war. On an individual level, each one of us needs to look at the risk level tah they can live with in today's interconnected world.
February 8th, 2012 at 17:48
Glad you agree with me Al. But it's not the new cold war. The cold war only involved 2 countries. The cyber war involves all countries.
February 8th, 2012 at 18:51
HI Catarina, I am not an expert (as you know
) on world affairs, but I do feel cyber war poses a real threat, hence I feel governments need to be advanced as possible to protect classified information.
It's just one more aspect we face in the world, but it's here to stay unfortunately. I think it's something that will have to be worked on. I guess the alternative would be to prevent internet access… period. That would be another war… as it's something that would affect us all… hence take away a huge part of our way of life.
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February 8th, 2012 at 18:57
Glad you agree with me Jayne. One problem is that far too many companies and government rely on the same providers of safety that hackers just hack into the providers server to be able to hack a multitude of sites.
February 8th, 2012 at 18:59
Don't think it will be full scale war either Lilach. Or maybe that's just being optimistic?:-)
February 9th, 2012 at 00:12
Hi Catarina, I really dont know too. But I think the governments of the world seem to be in competition with each other and anything is possible
February 9th, 2012 at 00:43
Interesting post here Catarina,
The suggestion that some type of cyber war online could ever be serious enough to cripple countries and even paralyze the world seems far fetched… That is until you realize the significant threat potential of a serious and well organized attack. Most cyber attacks are made to simply expose a weakness within a system or made without the the intention of serious end result. However, a serious type attack is possible and the threat does exist. An arms race in cyber space?… that's food for thought.
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February 9th, 2012 at 07:06
Honestly, i have no idea what's going on about cyber war and nuclear conflicts. All i wanted to happen is to see this happening and how to avoid it.
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February 9th, 2012 at 11:31
True Tosin. It's already going on in a small scale but hopefully it will not go any further.
February 9th, 2012 at 11:32
Glad you agree with me Ragnar.
February 9th, 2012 at 11:33
Sincerely hope it will never happen Mika. About how to avoid it there are recommendations for it. Let's see if that will have an impact?
February 9th, 2012 at 18:30
Cyber warfare–indeed a coming problem. Still, I believe that China and nations with a similar socio-economic structure are best able to weather the storm.
A few months back our power went out for three days. The best that happened? Town Hall handed out jugs of fresh water.
The Chinese can boil rice over a fire. The Chinese can light their homes with Candles, sew their own clothes, and walk to where they want to go if no bicycle is available and no one near by with a bicycle to lend.
If Cyber attacks shut down western nations, we will be at a complete loss.
There is no need for a nuclear attack. Simply go to the fuse box, take out a fuse, and walk away. The rest will be chaos and pandemonium.
Slim
February 9th, 2012 at 18:38
Slim small scale cyber warfare is already going on.
February 10th, 2012 at 20:07
We've never had a nuclear exchange and hopefully never will. Cyberwarfare takes place every day, between governments and businesses alike. It is not so much a threat as a reality. Prudent businesses and government agencies (especially vulnerable public utilities) need to devote much more attention to problems and take effective measures to deter attacks and minimize damage. I am aware of academic work in this regard, but my impression is that the potential victims are mostly in denial.
February 11th, 2012 at 11:37
Glad you agree with me Charles.
March 26th, 2012 at 04:05
yOU EVER THOUGHT AN ATTACK TO IRAN/SYRIA IS THE TRIGGER FOR A WORLDWIDE CONFLICT WITH THERMONUCLEAR WEAPONS ?? OTHERWISE, WHY SO MANY US- CARRIERS AND SUBS IN THE INDIAN AND PACIFIC OCEANS currently, SINCE LAST 3 MONTHS , CARRYNG OVER 300 MISSILES AND POINTING TO CHINA/RUSSIA ? THE OLD MANIACS FROM THE COLLAPSING MONETARY/FINANCIER CITY CIRCLES PREFER WAR AND WORLD DEVASTATION THAN EMERGENCE OF A NEW PACIFIC ASIAN CIVILISATION
March 26th, 2012 at 11:59
Thank you for conveying your opinion, Ed. However, I don't believe the US or anybody else for that matter would like to start a nuclear war.