Catarina's World

Sixteen of the fastest growing countries in the world are in Africa. No you didn’t get it wrong. Seven are in South East Asia followed by three in Central Asia. So has Africa’s time finally come and the continent will now forge ahead?

Ethiopia is predicted to grow at least 8% per annum for the next few years. If so, it will be as normal for Eleni Gabre-Madhin, CEO of the Ethiopia Commodity Exchange, to take center stage globally as for her Western and Asian counterparts.

According to the IMF we will see more African countries with massive growth during the next few years. They also forecast that many African economies will outpace Asian countries, even China and India.

The shoe is on the other foot

Angola is now lending money to it’s former colonial master Portugal struggling in the Euro crisis. Not so long ago nobody would have thought such a development possible.

Many of us have worked extensively to further the interests of Africa and hence hope real progress has now started. But somehow can’t help wondering what will go wrong this time because something usually does. Really hope it is correct that Africa as a whole will grow 7% on a yearly basis over the next two decades?

Surging demand for raw materials and foreign investment driving progres

The continents changing fortunes seems to be, at least partly, based on China’s demand for raw materials, higher commodities prices and increased inflow of foreign investment. Africa’s rising middle class have also fuelled growth in domestic demand. There is global interdependence in respect of production and demand. Africa offers producers around the world a vast and growing market that will keep on expanding.

African governments improving

Government is improving in Africa and corruption is less than it used to be. Seems the NEPAD peer review mechanism have made a difference when it comes to implementing true democracy, good corporate governance, transparency and eradicate corruption. Nowhere else in the world has such a process ever taken place and its uniqueness was well illustrated by former President Bush’s remark, “We don’t do that in America”. More and more governments are being responsible and putting money aside to cushion their economies. Know-how is also improving. As a result of statisticians improving their data in Ghana their GDP was revised up by as much as 75%.

Trade not aid

Africa, the poorest continent, according to many analysts, bares the brunt of the continued rigging of trade rules in the WTO. And in order to prosper the continent needs to trade out of poverty, as opposed to relying on aid. According to the UN, just one percent of increase in exports from Africa is worth a staggering five times the amount it receives in aid and debt relief.

Africans recognises their responsibility to wipe out the gap between the continent and the rest of the world. Africa wants to improve its role in the world economy. Its contribution to world trade is hopelessly small. They want to get its house in order, but the rest of the world needs to play its part as well. For example, Africa is told it may not subsidise its agriculture, so the Western world shouldn’t be doing so either, but as we know both the EU and US does. Jean Chretien put it very well when he stated “we must realize that little progress will be made with investments and trade if Africans continue to be refused access to our markets”.

African media has a role to play

Can’t help thinking about what President Chissano told me in 2004. According to him a major obstacle to improving the image of Africa is that the African press, like it’s Western counterparts, focus on scandals to grab headlines. Naturally a free press is essential, but the down side of that is that far too many negative stories come out of Africa, deter foreign investors and hence have a detrimental affect on the progress of the continent. Maybe it would be a good idea for African media to also show case African success stories? That Angola is growing faster than China would be a start.

The world’s new manufacturing centre?

Unfortunately commodity driven growth doesn’t generate enough jobs. However, now with salaries increasing in Asia  Africa could become the new manufacturing centre. Kenya and Uganda have already increased their export sector. To make this reality the WTO need to facilitate market access for products made in Africa on the world market. If not, Africa may continue to be a scar on the the conscience of the West.

There are many obstacles to Africa continuing to progress. Political instability, weak rule of law, corruption, bad infrastructure as well as poor health and education. So without the political will to reform, the current growth rate will be difficult to sustain. However, for outside companies looking for new markets a whole continent almost sounds too good to be true. But that’s what a developing Africa, with a gradually burgeoning middle class and numbers of skilled workers constantly increasing would constitute. A vast and growing market for the world’s manufactured products, intermediate goods and services. Add to that UN figures showing that investments in Africa provide higher rates of return than anywhere else in the world. It has been said for more than a decade that Africa’s time has come. But maybe now with the changed world order due to the recent global crisis, will Africa finally be able to progress? What do you believe? Will Africa now be able to forge ahead or will the gap between Africa and the rest of the world remain as wide as it is?

(Photo copyright World Economic Forum (www.weforum.org)/Photo by Zahur Ramji / Mediapix)

Criminal syndicates are increasingly turning from smuggling drugs to human cargo, and governments and law-enforcement agencies are, despite huge efforts, not able to do much about it. Watch Angelina Jolie talk about the desperation of refugees that make them turn to people smugglers:

Unfortunately it's not just between Africa and the Arabian peninsula people are being smuggled. And lamentably there is only so much humanitarian organisations can do to alleviate suffering. 

Who benefits apart from the smugglers?

Frequently Africans are then smuggled from the Middle East to Europe at the cost of approximately $10,000 per person. The most popular destinations are Scandinavia and Britain. But once there some immigrants fail to integrate into society because they they really do not want to be in Europe, but because they can't make a living back home they felt they had no choice. Can't help thinking that all this is so unnecessary and the only ones benefiting are some vested interests and the gangsters making money smuggling them. The latter charge hefty fees of $10,000 per person but many migrants still die en route. Or remain in debt to the people smugglers with all that entails. 

So how can we enable poor people to support themselves in their home countries hence depriving people smugglers of their lucrative income? Aid doesn't seem to do the trick, at least not so far. So why should more foreign aid suddenly be able to remedy the current situation?

Trade instead of aid

Am a firm believer of replacing aid with trade by helping developing countries trade themselves out of poverty. And the swiftest and easiest way of doing so would be to enable them to sell their agricultural produce on the international market.

The EU spends almost two fifths of its entire budget (EU budget for 2010 around 139bn Euros) on the Common Agricultural Program, CAP, and even pay European farmers to overproduce. Those products are then dumped at ultra low prises in developing countries, whose farmers are not able to produce at such low costs. Result – poor farmers become even poorer and developing countries even more dependent on imports to feed their population.

Scrap CAP and US farm subsidies

Scrapping CAP as well as US farm subsidies would thus go a long way towards improving the lives of poor people in developing countries and hence reduce people smugglers income. But chances of that happening are slim, unfortunately, since farmers are a strong lobby group in the US and out of 27 EU member countries only four are interested in gradually getting rid of CAP. 

All consumers in the world would benefit from abolition of EU & US agricultural subsidies since agricultural products would suddenly become much cheaper. Less immigrants would would be forced to use the services of people smugglers since more of them would be able to support themselves back home. Less Westerners become farmers anyway, so why don't we press fast forward and make this world a better place for all, apart from people smugglers?

What's the point in depriving developing countries of their ability to trade themselves out of poverty? The only thing Western Agricultural subsidies achieve is preserving a profession that is in decline in the West anyway? Wouldn't it be better to take a more holistic view and find solutions that are beneficial to all, instead of just a few? We also have to improve the global trade regime that has been crafted over the years by the WTO to benefit not only multinationals in the North but also the poor in the South. But abolishing Western agricultural subsidies would make an excellent start.

(Video –  AngelinaJolieUNHCR) 

Now the permanent stewards of the world economy, will G20 keep the momentum going by improving the global economic regime that has been crafted over the years?

Will G20 leaders from developing countries manage to make their colleagues from the West realize that in order for the world economy to work properly, there need to be advantages for the poor as well?

G20 has come a long way – the new kid on the block in 2004 is now the leader of the pack. It started as an alliance to bring democracy to world trade at the WTO talks in Cancun and has become the main permanent body in the world responsible for economic co-operation, meeting annually at the leaders level

Hopefully G20 will not forget the importance of world trade. Will G20 again, manage to have an impact on world trade? The WTO trade talks in Cancun, as you may remember, collapsed as a result of G20 demanding fairer trade. If so, what strategies will be deployed to negotiate a trade deal that benefits not only multinationals in the North but also the poor in the South? How will G20 make the world focus on making international trade rules fairer? What steps will be taken to decrease rich countries protectionist policies?

G20 is now the key player on the global scene which, at least in theory, enables it to provide the conditions for developing countries to embark on peace, prosperity and pluralism. We have come a long way from G8 to G20 and it will go further. The developing world, representing four-fifth of humanity, is now much better represented on the global scene.

Poverty does not cause terrorism – but it causes frustration and resentment that help foster the kind of atmosphere in which extremist groups can thrive. A much better, and cheaper, way of defeating extremists than war on terrorism would be to give developing countries the possibility to trade out of poverty.

Trade has been shown to be the indispensable means for poverty reduction and growth. There also seems to be a close correlation between a country engaging in open trade and ultimately embracing democracy. With 40 percent of humanity living on less than $2 a day and approximately a billion living under military style dictatorships often engaged in civil war and genocide, we should care a lot. The most striking example of the benefits of a trade oriented economy versus a closed, self-sufficient one is the two Koreas. At the end of the Korean war in 1952 they were both extremely poor. And how North and South Korea have developed since then under their different systems is well known.

What will G20 do to craft a fairer world trade order? Most Westerners would like a fair global economic system. If, for instance, the issue of access to life-saving Aids drugs were put to a vote, the overwhelming majority would not support the position of Western pharmaceutical companies. The power of special interests is high – but will it still be if trade moves up the political agenda in G20? And once that has happened, will people in the West agree to anything that asks the poorest people in the world – the billions living on less than $2 a day – to pay the price? Will G20 leaders from developing countries manage to make their colleagues from the West realize that in order for the world economy to work properly, there need to be advantages for the poor as well? That’s the big question isn’t it ,and my hope is that they will succeed so that we can finally unlock the benefits of the world economy for all.

(Photo:www.flickr.com/photos/londonsummit/href=”http://www.flickr.com/photos/londonsummit)

Global trade contracted by about 12 percent in 2009 but has started to pick up, the head of the World Trade Organization (WTO) Pascal Lamy said. The WTO has revised its previous estimate of a contraction of about 10 percent in 2009 but declined to give a forecast for 2010.

Whether the pick-up in global trade is short term or sustainable is difficult to say.

“World trade has also been a casualty of this global economic crisis, contracting by about 12 percent in 2009,” Lamy said. He added that it’s a huge drop and the sharpest decline since the end of World War Two.

Asked about world trade in 2010, he declined to give any figure but said: “Certainly there is a pick-up. Whether this pick-up is short term or sustainable is difficult to say but we certainly are picking up.”

Lamy told a meeting organized by the European Policy Center think-tank that opening global trade offered a way out of the crisis and that it was “economically imperative” to conclude the Doha round of talks on a new global commerce pact.

So it seems global trade is picking up but even experts are not sure if it will continue to do so this year? What do you think? Will world trade pick-up this year? If so, how much do you forecast? Or is the rise we have seen so far this year just a temporary increase that will start declining again?

(Photo: Vita Vanaga Photo Xpress)