Which economies will grow fastest this year?
Life is full of surprises and The Economist’s prediction may fall into that category. Watch this two-minute video outlining their forecast:
It’s easy to fall into the trap of thinking of huge successful economies like China and India, isn’t it. But obviously economies that have not really grown so far are going to be the success stories. Last year The Economist predicted Macau, Mongolia, Libya and The Gambia would be the fastest growing. And The World Bank’s forecast was Mongolia, Iraq, Democratic Republic of Timor and Sierra Leone.
No matter what forecast, and there are many, they all point to Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Central Asia and Latin America. South Sudan is frequently mentioned and the reason for that is very well explained in the video. Have personally worked with all countries mentioned, apart from South Sudan and Timor.
There is ample scope for growth in all of them and it will be really interesting to see which ones will manage to grow as predicted. The US is currently considering targeted sanctions against South Sudan for its failure of leadership that has brought the country to the brink of civil war. So if South Sudan turns out to be the fastest growing economy in the world or just spiral into civil war is a huge question mark.
It’s interesting to note that The World Economic Forum actually believe that all areas of the world will have contracting growth this year compared to last.
Do you agree with The Economist about which countries will grow fastest this year? Or are you betting on other countries? Will African countries finally forge ahead? Will Iraq grow this year or be hindered by conflict? Will MENA, excluding conflict zones, be a success story? Will South Sudan grow fast or be hindered by problems in the area?
Video: The Economist – You Tube